Wednesday, October 08, 2008

What is the Marriageable formula?

I would assume that the final formula is probably very complex but I would probably figure it to be something like this.

(Marriage rate) - (Divorce rate) = (true marriage rate of the population)

((Current unmarried heterosexual female:male population desiring marriage) - (female:male Death or imprisonment)) * ((Rate of women turning 15 + Rate of new marriageable immigrants) or (Rate of men turning 15 + Rate of new marriageable immigrants)) = (Population of Marriageable persons males and females)

(Population of Marriageable persons males or females) - (Undesirable Population of (ethnic/religious/financial) target of marriage) * (true marriage rate of population) = Probability of marriage.

So let's look at this. This is grossly simplified and I am sure that my math could use some sprucing up. The marriage rate though I can confess is a gross generalization.

So the true Rate of reportable marriages in the US is 3.9%, that is it 39 people out of 1000 per capita get married every year. At that rate it would take on average 26 years for a woman turning 15 to get married. That is a pretty bleak number. Let's assume that the population ratio was 1:1 so 500 marriageable women and men each. The ratio is actually a scant higher 105
males per 100 females. So 19.5 girls actually got to get married leaving 480.5 women longing to get married. If you minus the men's population by those who have no desire to get married because sex is so easy to come by, those who die and those who are imprisoned and now the female population begins to quickly tower over the men's population. Minus those undesirables
and the number becomes even more scant. If you throw in religion, race and financial status preferences into the mix the number is smaller still. So for the Muslim population you often hear a lot of hubbub about polygamy and chances are those women are already married. If they happened to be in this city in the post below then they would have to TRUST their husbands resolve and their relationship that he would stay away from the super fluidity of women in the city. What is also not noted in this commentary is that when the number of prostitutes rise, the promiscuity of non-prostitutes probably rises as well. Cheapening the value of upstanding women and increasing the spread of STD's in relationships with marital bonds.

Tell me what you think...

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